Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
